# Higher winrate doesn’t lower the variance

*Variance graph for Player A calculated on www.primedope.com*

## Why you should use a HUD, if you don’t like downswings

If you play **online poker**, then you absolutely **have to use a HUD**. It’s just **humanly impossible** to **keep track** of all of your **opponents tendencies**, and then adjust and exploit them accordingly. You might be a very “**GTO**” **player** and you just play your game, which is fundamentally very sound, and you are **winning**. If this is you, then *imagine, how much further you could increase your winrate, with your skills, if you could add more exploitative lines to your game*.

**Higher winrate** is also **better** for your **mindset** and your overall (let’s call it) happiness. Although *higher winrate doesn’t actually lower the variance*, like many people like to think – you will still win 60% of 60/40 situations and the odds to hit your hand are still the same regardless of your winrate.

The real difference comes from the fact that those stretches that **used to be** the “**downswings**” might **now** be just **break-even stretches**, and the **used-to-be break-even stretches** are **now** stretches with **just** a **lower winrate than your average**. This is because **your graph is now moving up on a higher degree angle**.

Let’s look at an **imaginary situation**, where poker gods come together and reach a conclusion that **player A** and **B** should have a *100k hand stretch, where they will have 5bb/100 lower winrate than usual*. Now, player **A**‘s normal winrate is **6.5bb/100** – the +EV HUD user, and player **B**‘s winrate is only **1.6bb/100**. Clearly the “downswing” is going to be a lot tougher for player **B**, because they are losing at a **-3.4bb/100** for 100k hands, while player **A**‘s winrate went down to **1.5bb/100** for those 100k hands. Player **B** is also a lot more likely to go on **tilt** and **increase the length and depth of their downswing** even further.

*Variance graph for Player B calculated on www.primedope.com*

*HUD on a Winamax MTT table*

Player **A** on the other hand, can’t even call it a downswing, even though they are winning at a lower winrate than usual. But because of the higher initial winrate, **the same “bad beats” don’t have as dramatic effect** on them.

**They both lost 5bb/100 from their winrate**, but the real **line that matters**, is the **0** line, from which player A didn’t fall through, but player B did.

So this means, that if you have a **higher winrate**, you will also have **less downswings** and they will be smaller. The **variance is still there**, because **variance does not equal downswing**. But because your winrate has a bigger buffer, in case a negative variance happens, you won’t experience as many and as dramatic “downswings” as would a player with a lower winrate.

* All the small edges you can gain from a HUD, which you wouldn’t notice without it, can make a very big difference in your winrate and in your mental state at the tables. So make yourself a favour and get a free +EV HUD trial and improve your winrate*.

*Although the above example is based on cash games, it is the same for tournaments, just instead of bb/100, think of ROI*.